9/26/2009 Vikings Report

Last Week:
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The Vikings had another relatively easy game last Sunday against the Lions. Minnesota won 27-13. Below, I compare my projections to reality for Week 2.

Adrian Peterson: My projection: 175 yards rushing, 30 yards receiving and 2TDs. Outcome: 92 yards rushing, 24 yards receiving and 1 TD.

Brett Favre: My projection: 250 yards passing, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions. Outcome: 155 yards passing, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions.

Percy Harvin: My projection: 75 combined yards and 1TD: Outcome: 55 combined yards and 1TD

Bernard Berrian: My projection: Leave him on the bench. Outcome: 46 yards on 6 receptions and no TDs.

Sidney Rice: My projection: Leave him on the bench. Outcome: 29 yards on 3 receptions and no TDs.

Ryan Longwell: My projection: Top 5 kicker. Outcome: #8 kicker

Visanthe Shiancoe: My projection: 45 yards and 1TD. Outcome: 10 yards and 1 TD.

Chester Taylor: My projection: 50 combined yards. Outcome: 28 combined yards

Vikings Defense: My projection: The #2 Fantasy Defense. Outcome: The #5 Fantasy Defense



This Week:
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The Vikings face a stiffer test than the previous two weeks playing against the San Francisco 49ers. This is the only matchup of undefeated teams squaring off in week three. After two weeks, these teams are mirror images of each other. Both have strong defenses (#4 Vikings and #7 Niners in total yards), conservative passing attacks (Vikings #32 and Niners #30) and formidable running games (Vikings #2 and Niners #9). I expect the Vikings to win their first home game 27-20.

Rumors:
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All is good when you’re winning. No schisms, injury-gates or retirements to report this week.

Injuries:
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Percy Harvin missed practice on Thursday and Friday with an illness. He is listed as questionable for week three. Adrian Peterson had a sore back and is listed as probable. He fully participated in Friday's practice and is expected to start. Brett Favre bent his finger nail in last week’s game. No I’m not kidding. It was his last throw of the game and he was in obvious pain. That being said, he’s not listed on the injury report and his streak of consecutive starts is not in danger this week. I will provide an injury update via Twitter before kickoff regarding Harvin, Peterson and more.

Position Analysis:
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QUARTERBACK

Two games down and Brett Favre is not throwing for many yards. His totals for Week 1 and 2 were 110 and 155 respectively. He has 3 TDs and 0 interceptions on the season. He’s also not taking any shots deep, mainly throwing short passes. However, now that Berrian is back I expect him to take a few shots to keep the defense honest.

The Vikings are the #32 ranked passing offense in the NFL by total yards. The 49ers defense has played well against the pass this year producing 3 interceptions in just 2 games. I project 180 yards passing, 2 TDs and 1 interception.

RUNNING BACKS

Last week, Adrian Peterson rushed for 92 yards on 15 carries. He averaged over 6 yards a carry against Detroit. The 49ers have a physical defense in the mold of their head coach Mike Singletary. They are the 3rd ranked rushing defense in the NFL after two weeks. However, their first two opponents had weak running games. I expect Adrian Peterson to get at least 25 carries, but his yards per carry to drop significantly from last week. I project 95 yards rushing, 20 yards receiving and 1TD for Peterson.

Chester Taylor had 12 touches in game 1 and 7 touches in game 2. However, he has not topped 30 combined yards in either game. He is unlikely to do better against the 49ers. I project only 20 combined yards for Chester Taylor.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Bernard Berrian caught more balls than any other Viking against Detroit last week. He had 6 receptions for 46 yards, and seems to have fully recovered from his hamstring injury. He still needs some time to work on his chemistry with Favre. The lack of passing offense hurts Berrian’s value, but I think he is safe to start as a #3 receiver. His value will increase even further if Percy Harvin is not able to suit up on Sunday. I project 65 yards receiving and a TD from Berrian.

Percy Harvin had 2 rushes for 14 yards and 5 receptions for 41 yards. He’s developed quite a rapport with Favre, catching one touchdown in each of the last two games. However, there is a good chance he will not play this week. Keep Harvin on the bench for Week 3. I will update his status on Twitter before kickoff.

Sidney Rice will score some touchdowns this year, but he’s not getting targeted enough to warrant consideration for starting on you fantasy team. However, his value does increase if Percy Harvin doesn’t play. I project 30 yards receiving and a TD from Rice this week. That being said, I think Rice is a risky option as he has done very little the first two weeks.

TIGHT ENDS

The good news is Shiancoe caught a TD last week. The bad news it was his only catch. I project 25 yards from Shiancoe, but no TDs.

KICKER

Ryan Longwell is tied for #5 in fantasy points for kickers for the first two weeks. He’s playing at home in a dome. Start him.

DEFENSE

The Vikings have not been as dominant on defense as people expected. They had relatively easy matchups the first two weeks, and even though the 49ers are an improvement, their offense should not keep you up at night. The Niners are ranked #26 in total yards and 30th in passing yards. Their strength is the running game with Frank Gore. The Niners rank 9th in total rushing yards. I expect the Vikings to match up well against San Francisco and to finish as a Top 10 fantasy defense this week.
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