How did my projections compare to reality?
The Game: My projection: Vikings 27, SF 49ers 20 Outcome: Vikings 27, SF 49ers 24
Adrian Peterson: My projection: 95 yards rushing, 20 yards receiving and 1TD. Outcome: 85 yards rushing, 14 yards receiving and no TDs.
Brett Favre: My projection: 180 yards passing, 2 TDs and 1 interception. Outcome: 301 yards passing, 2 TDs and 1 interception.
Percy Harvin: My projection: Keep Harvin on bench, because he was questionable at the time I wrote the article. Outcome: 4 receptions for 51 yards; 1 rush for -8 yards. 1TD on a kickoff return
Bernard Berrian: My projection: 65 yards and 1TD Outcome: 56 yards on 4 receptions and no TDs.
Sidney Rice: Projection : 30 Yards and 1TD Outcome: 56 yards on 4 receptions and 1 TD.
Visanthe Shiancoe: My projection: 25 yards and no TDs Outcome: 22 yards on 2 receptions and no TDs
Chester Taylor: My projection: 20 combined yards. Outcome: 86 combined yards
Vikings Defense: My projection: Top 10 Fantasy Defense. Outcome: #14 Fantasy Defense for Week 3
This Week:
---------------------------
What can you say? Brett Favre faces his old team the Packers in Minnesota. This is the most anticipated match up so far this season. And it’s Monday Night Football! Does it get any better? The only matchup that is more intriguing this year is when the Vikings play at Green Bay in Week 8. I predict Vikings 31, Packers 27.
Rumors:
---------------------------
This is a big one. Although, I think it’s baseless, its nevertheless a big rumor. I was driving in the car yesterday morning listening to the Dan Patrick radio show. Dan mentioned that when they come back from commercial he would discuss the Randy Moss to Minnesota trade rumor. Unfortunately, I arrived at my destination and could not hang around to hear the discussion. After some internet search, I found an article by Mike Florio of Profootballtalk.com which is owned by NBC Sports. Florio speculates that Moss is not giving full effort on the field in hopes of getting out of New England to join Favre in Minnesota. He goes on to say how Favre is friends with Moss, and Favre wanted Ted Thompson to sign Moss when they were in Green Bay, and this would be Favre’s ultimate way to get revenge on Ted Thompson and the Packers. Can you imagine Favre, Randy Moss, Adrian Peterson, and Percy Harvin on the field at the same time? Add in Bernard Berrian, if he can reclaim form, and you have the most potent offense outside of New Orleans. That said there is no evidence backing this speculation. If Moss is not playing 100%, it’s because he’s injured, not because he’s trying to get traded. Finally, I found another article that questions Florio’s journalistic integrity for writing this along with other rumor mongering in the past. Here is a link to the PFT article
Injuries:
---------------------------
Dave Flemming from ESPN says that Favre had “a sore right foot, a gimpy knee, two bad shoulders and a stiff neck.” That was last week when he threw 300+ yards and 2 TDs. What happens if he gets healthy? I have not seen an injury report yet this week, but I know of no major injuries. As usual, I’ll tweet injury updates before kickoff.
Position Analysis:
---------------------------
QUARTERBACK
Favre was a beast last week, pulling out the most dramatic comeback up his storied career. He threw a bullet touchdown pass to Greg Lewis with just two seconds left on the clock. His second best play was when he threw a pass to Bernard Berrian, and then Favre sprinted more than 30 yards down the field to throw a block for Berrian at the end of the play. That play alone gave me the feeling that Favre is really having fun and playing like his old self.
The Packers rank 13th in the NFL in pass defense by yards. They are tied for 14th in the league with five sacks. However they’re tied for 1st in interceptions, picking off 7 passes this year. That being said, this is a game that Favre has dreamed about since being traded from Green Bay to the Jets last year. I expect him to be focused and very motivated. I project 275 yards passing, 2 TDs and 1 interception.
RUNNING BACKS
Great news! The Packers are ranked 23rd against the run. I project 150 yards and 2TDs for Peterson. 40 combined yards and 0 TDs for Chester Taylor.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Bernard Berrian looked bad on Sunday. He dropped a number of balls including one that resulted in a pick by Brett Favre. I had stated in the first 3 reports to wait until Berrian had one big game before starting him. Then last week, I changed it up and projected a decent game from Berrian. That projection went awry and I return to the old message. Do not start Berrian until he has at least one big game. Percy Harvin continues to be the top wide receiver on the Vikings. He has scored a touchdown in each game. This past week he scored on a kick return. I still expect him to score at least one TD from the running back position and one from the Quarterback position in the Wildcat formation at some point this season. Sidney Rice scored his first TD last week as I projected, however he has not been consistant enough to warrant a start. Greg Lewis, the touchdown grabbing hero from last week is not a viable fantasy option. I project 100 combined yards from Percy Harvin and a TD. 60 yards from Berrian and 40 yards from Rice.
TIGHT ENDS
Visanthe Shiancoe did not have a good Week 3. However, last week, Rams’ Tight End, Daniel Fells caught 2 balls for 35 yards and two TDs against the Packers, so the Packers defense may be vulnerable to tight ends. I project 20 yards and 1TD from Shiancoe this Week, however he’s a very risky option. Only use Shiancoe as last resort.
KICKER
Brett Favre is not the only Viking playing against his former team this week. Add Ryan Longwell to that list. Longwell is the #5 fantasy kicker in the NFL. Start him.
DEFENSE
The Packers have a good offense, and this could be a high scoring game. I think the Vikings will finish as the #9 fantasy defense this week; however I don’t think the defense will score many fantasy points. I would look somewhere else this week if possible. The 49ers (vs. Rams) and Bengals (vs. Browns) are two teams that may be on your waiver wire who have great matchups this week.
I will provide last minute injury updates over Twitter and may also be Tweeting during the game.
