Ranking the Waiver Wire Running Backs; Playoff Positioning; Don’t Pick Up That Guy!

What a week in the NFL! A flurry of injuries has caused a number of new names to emerge as potential waiver wire pickups. There are some tough decisions to make. Who can best improve your team? This article aims to help you make those decisions by ranking the waiver wire running backs. I look at a number of factors: Explosive potential, seriousness of the starter’s injury and strength of schedule for the fantasy playoffs. This last category is not something many fantasy owners are usually investigating at this point in the season. So what constitutes fantasy playoffs? Some leagues start as early as Week 14 and some go all the way to Week 17. However, Weeks 15 and 16 seem to be included in most leagues, so I’ll focus there. I’ll look at the matchup for these running backs in those all important weeks, and assess the run defense that they’ll be competing against. Now let’s get to business.

Ranking the Waiver Wire

1. Jamaal Charles – He should have been picked up in most leagues prior to this week, but he’s only owned in 58% of CBSSports.com leagues. He is the clear number one running back in Kansas City with the departure of Larry Johnson. Jamaal ran for 103 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries and caught four balls for 14 yards last Sunday versus the Raiders. He has a great matchup for the playoffs in Week 15 against the Browns 30th ranked rush defense. There are better options at running back in Week 16, when Charles faces the Bengals’ and their number two rushing defense.

2. Justin Forsett – I rank Justin Forsett of the Seahwaks as the best of running back this week that was forced into action because of injury to the starter. Of all the running backs that were injured this week, Julius Jones was the only one that did not have a firm hold on the starting position. He has had some shaky performances this year. With Justin Forsett’s strong performance against a good Cardinal run defense, he now has a shot to take over the starting role even when Jones returns to full health. As for the playoffs, he has a great matchup in Week 15 when he squares off against the 31st ranked Tampa Bay rush defense. Week 16 is a tougher matchup when he goes against the 4th ranked Packers

3. Ladell Betts - Many owners picked up Ladell Betts last week. He is 69% owned in CBSSports.com leagues. I was not one of them. The Redskins have been a mess all year, and I knew Betts would split carries with Rock Cartwright, so my expectations were low. Betts shattered my expectations with 26 carries for 114 yards and a touchdown. Rock Cartwright also added 9 carries for 41 yards. This was the best the entire Redskins offense has looked all year. Maybe the Sherm Lewis play calling experiment is beginning to pay off. Betts should start again this week as Clinton Portis is still experiencing some lingering effects of the concussion. When Portis does return, Betts will move back to second string. However, after this week’s outcome, he will still probably see more touches per game than he did in the first half of the season.

4. Jason Snelling – Michael Turner has a high ankle sprain. These types of injuries can sometimes last a while, so Snelling could see extensive duty. He is not as explosive as Michael Turner, or Jerrious Norwood for that matter. It took Snelling 18 carries to reach 61 yards, however he did have a touchdown. Michael Turner had 111 yards on nine carries before he was injured. However, with both Turner and Norwood injured, expect Snelling to be the workhorse. As this injury may be serious, Snelling could be starting for a number of weeks. His playoff matchups are pretty good as well. He faces the Jets in Week 15 who have slipped to the number 18 rushing defense. And in Week 16, he faces the worst rush defense in the NFL - the 32nd ranked Buffalo Bills.

5. Bernard Scott – Cedric Benson has been a beast this year, and he is running behind a great line. Most of the news is that Benson will be back this week, so I don’t expect Scott to have as much impact as the above running backs. Scott is explosive though, at least in the area of kickoffs. He had a 96 yard return for a touchdown, which proved to be the difference in the game. On offense his numbers were not as impressive, but he was facing the number one rush defense in the NFL - the Pittsburgh Steelers. Scott finished with 13 carries for 33 yards and one catch for 21 yards. If Benson somehow is hurt during Weeks 15 and 16, then Scott has great matchups for the playoffs. Week 15, he faces the 23rd ranked Chargers and in Week 16 he faces the 27th ranked Kansas City Chiefs.

6. Jerrious Norwood – Talk about explosive! This guy should be at the top of the list. He averaged over 6 yards per carry in 2006 and 2007. Many people thought he would become the starter for the Falcons in 2008, but they brought in Michael Turner, and who can blame them. Unfortunately, this year has been rough. He has missed the past four weeks with injury. There are some rumors that he may be able to come back this week, but nothing is confirmed. Norwood has missed a lot of time. If you have room on your bench, why not stash him there and wait and see what happens.

Don’t Pick Up That Guy!

Larry Johnson – Many people will be tempted by this one, now that he is going to Cincinatti. In my opinion, Larry Johnson is only going there for additional depth. He’ll be learning a new offense and I don’t expect him to unseat Bernard Scott even for the number two position behind Cedric Benson. I would follow the lead of 32 general managers in the NFL, who let this guy clear waivers and remain on the street. You know there is something wrong when the Kansas City Chiefs fans started a petition to cut or deactivate Larry Johnson, because they didn’t want him to become the Chiefs all time leading running back. He was only 75 yards away from that honor. I’ll be surprised if he picks up 75 total yards over the next 4 weeks of the season.

Michael Bush – Bush had a heck of a game. He gained 119 yards on 14 rushes. But there are two very big problems here. First, he plays for the Oakland Raiders, the 2nd worst offense in the league. They rank 31st in the league by total yards. Even worse, Bush is part of a three headed running attack. Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden are the two primary backs. McFadden has been hurt, but he’s expected to return this week. Bush is no doubt better than Larry Johnson, and it’s possible he’ll outperform some other guys that I’ve recommended picking up. But barring new injuries to McFadden or Fargas, I believe Bush has the least upside potential of the other waiver wire running backs I’ve recommended this week.

Number Two Running Backs Who have Stud Potential

1. Ricky Williams – What am I saying? Ricky was already a stud, even before the injury of Ronnie Brown. This week the Dolphins have an early Thursday game. It’s unlikely that Brown will be available to play. If that’s the case, expect Ricky to be a legitimate number one running back this week. He was already a borderline number one fantasy running back. I rank him as a top ten back while Ronnie Brown is injured.
2. LeSean McCoy could be the number one running back for the rest of the year for the Eagles. Brian Westbrook had his second concussion in just four weeks. This is serious and he may be done for the season. Why do I have McCoy behind Ricky Williams? First the Eagles like to throw more than pass. And secondly, Philly has a tough fantasy playoff schedule, playing San Francisco (3rd rush defense) and Denver (12th rush defense) in Weeks 15 and 16.

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