WEEK 11 Vikings vs. Seahawks - Fantasy Football Preview

LAST WEEK
Let’s imagine two teams are competing in a football game. One team is better at every single position on the field than the other team. However, the really good team is coming off a bye and appears to be a little rusty. Let’s imagine the good team has the best running back in the NFL but he fumbles twice in the red zone. Then they go on to commit 13 penalties for 91 yards. With everything going wrong, does the inferior team have a chance to pull out a victory? Not if they are facing the Vikings! In case you haven’t figured it out this was a partial recap of the Vikings and Lions matchup of week ten. The Vikings overcame all these obstacles to easily beat the Detroit Lions 27-10. The part of the story that I didn’t tell, was that Favre threw for over 300 yards and a touchdown, Sidney Rice had over 200 yards receiving, and Adrian Peterson rushed for over 100 yards and two touchdowns. So what would have happened if the Vikings had not started off so slow? They probably would have come a lot closer to scoring the 41 points that I predicted. I missed on that one, but see how I performed on my other predictions in Projections vs. Reality.

The Game: My projection: Vikings 41, Lions 20
Outcome: Vikings 27, Lions 10

Adrian Peterson: My projection: 140 combined yards, 2TDs
Outcome: 143 combined yards and 2TDs

Brett Favre: My projection: 230 yards and 3 TDs
Outcome: 344 yards passing, 1 TD

Sidney Rice: Projection : 90 Yards and 1 TD
Outcome: 201 yards

Percy Harvin: My projection: 60 combined yards combined yards and 1TD
Outcome: 60 combined yards

Bernard Berrian: My projection: 50 yards
Outcome: 22 yards

Visanthe Shiancoe: My projection: 20 yards and 1TD
Outcome: 43 yards

Chester Taylor: My projection: 60 combined yards
Outcome: 27 combined yards

Vikings Defense: My projection: Top 5 fantasy defense
Outcome: #12 Fantasy Defense for week ten


THIS WEEK
This week the Vikings have another easy matchup when they play the Seattle Seahawks at home in Minnesota. Seattle is a below average team with the 16th ranked defense and the 20th ranked offense in the league. This is another must start for the big three in Minnesota – Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson and Sidney Rice. I predict the Vikings win 31-17.


RUMORS
No rumors to report this week, so I’ll revisit my Top Four Power Rankings.

1. Vikings
2. Colts
3. Saints
4. Bengals

A couple weeks ago I had the Saints in the top spot. Although they’re still undefeated their wins are becoming less and less impressive. They just don’t look like the best team in football. The Vikings do however. They are a complete team. The only potential weakness is in the secondary, but their front seven can help hide this weakness by putting tremendous pressure on opposing quarterbacks. I have the Colts moving up from number four to number two. Although I think the Patriots should have won last week’s game, the Colts prevailed. This was a quality win for the Colts and they have a great chance to go undefeated this year. The only really tough matchup left on the schedule is at Baltimore this week. The Steelers were the number three team previously, but after losing twice to the Bengals they have fallen off the list.

INJURIES
This supposed groin injury is the best thing that could have happened to Brett Favre. His stats have gone through the roof the past two weeks. For the superstitious folks out there, let’s hope this injury lingers on. The big injury news from outside of Minnesota is that Ronnie Brown has been place on IR and is done for the year. I traded Ryan Grant and Carson Palmer for him last week. Great move! No need to worry. A lot of talented guys are available on the waiver wire this week. Check out my article, Ranking the Waiver Wire Running Backs, Playoff Positioning and Don’t Pick up That Guy!

POSITION ANALYSIS

QUARTERBACK
Favre is a true number fantasy quarterback this year. Most pundits had him ranked around twenty in the draft. I thought he would finish the season around twelve or thirteen. He is currently ranked number nine in fantasy points. He’s ahead of Kurt Warner, Donovan McNabb, and Matt Ryan to name a few. I could see Favre climbing up to number five by the end of the regular season, only behind Brady, Manning, Brees, and Rogers. Brett has weapons at every position. He has the big wideout, the fast wideout, and the playmaking wideout. He has the touchdown-pass-catching tight end. He has a great third down back that can catch out of the backfield, a great offensive line, and the best running back in the league. He also has a favorable schedule with many porous defenses the rest of the way. He should do well against the Seahawks’ 22nd ranked pass-defense.

My Projection: 270 yards, 2 TDs

RUNNING BACKS
The Seahawks have the 11th ranked rush defense. They’re giving up 105 yards per game and eight rushing touchdowns over the first nine games. Adrian Peterson is a must start every week. However if you don’t have Adrian Peterson and you’re looking for help at running back, then check out my article, Ranking the Waiver Wire Running Backs

My Projection: Peterson 130 combined yards, 1 TD; Taylor 25 combined yards

WIDE RECEIVERS
There have been questions for the first part of the season as to who would be the number one receiver for the Vikings. Berrian was number one last year. Percy Harvin took an early lead this year, but we now finally have a winner. Sidney Rice is the clear number one favorite target of Brett Favre. Rice caught seven balls for 201 yards last week. He’s now not only a number one receiver for the Vikings, but he’s a number one receiver for fantasy teams (meaning top twelve). Percy Harvin could explode any given week. He should be considered a number three receiver for fantasy leagues (meaning ranked between 25-36). Berrian is clearly a number four fantasy receiver, meaning that in most formats he should be remain on your bench.

My Projection: Rice 100 yards, 1 TD; Harvin 60 combined yards and 1 TD; Berrian 40 yards

TIGHT ENDS
It’s feast of famine with Shiancoe. He’s the perfect player for scoring only leagues as he has six touchdowns on the season. However, if you want yards, he doesn’t get them. It’s really a guess each week if he will score a touchdown or not. Your odds are slightly better than 50%. He didn’t have a touchdown last week, so I’ll project he’ll get on this week. For flex situations, I would select the top 40 wide receivers ahead of Shiancoe in any given week.

My Projection: 30 yards and 1TD


KICKER
If you have Ryan Longwell, you should start him every week. The

Vikings score a lot, and he’s very good. He’s also a kicker, so

there’s not much else to say here.

DEFENSE
In my league, the Vikings are the sixth ranked fantasy defense. This is a good matchup at home against a below average offense I predict they will be a top ten fantasy defense against the Seahawks.

Week 10 was a tough week for fantasy owners after a slew of key injuries. Brian Westbrook, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Michael Turner, Julius Jones were some of the players that were knocked out of games. But if you own these guys, don’t worry. theNFLguy is here to help. Check out my article, Ranking the Waiver Wire Running Backs, Playoff Positioning and Don’t Pick up That Guy!

theNFLguy Makes Week 11 Picks

theNFLguy picked 9 out of 15 games correctly last week, including two of his four upset picks. If not for the Patriots last minute collapse he would have been 75% on upset picks. He is now 101-43 on the season.

Now on to the Week 11 Picks!

theNFLguy picks:

Carolina to win at home vs. Miami
Baltimore to win at home vs. Indianapolis
Dallas to win at home vs. Washington
Detroit to win at home vs. Cleveland
Green Bay to win at home vs. San Francisco
Jacksonville to win at home vs. Buffalo
Pittsburgh to win at Kansas City
Minnesota to win at home vs. Seattle
NY Giants to win at home vs. Atlanta
New Orleans to win at Tampa Bay
Arizona to win at St. Louis
New England to win at home vs. NY Jets
Cincinnati to win at Oakland
Philadelphia to win at Chicago

theNFLguy picks two upsets this week:
Denver to win at home vs. San Diego (Vegas has this even, but ESPN has San Diego by 7 points)
Tennessee to win at Houston