Week 13: Vikings at Cardinals Fantasy Football Preview

LAST WEEK
What if I were to tell you that Brett Favre is the number two overall quarterback in fantasy football? Would you believe me? Well, he is. That is, if you start the season at week three instead of week one. Remember, Favre missed all of training camp and came to the Vikings after the first preseason game. He was still getting in shape and developing rapport with his receivers the first two weeks of the season.

In my league*, the top five quarterbacks are Rogers (255 points), Brees (228 points), Manning (217 points), Brady (210 points) and Favre (205 points). However, when you take out the first two weeks of the season, Favre moves to the number two spot: Rogers (222 points), Favre (183 points), Brady (182 points), Manning (179 points) and Brees (168 points). Most preseason fantasy football analysts ranked Favre around twenty, in other words, a low-end number two quarterback. I had him ranked 12, but with upside if he could stay healthy. However, I don’t think Brett Favre, Brad Childress, or anyone for that matter could have predicted this - that Brett would be an MVP candidate at age 40, and producing at the level of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.

Brett Favre had another MVP performance against the Chicago Bears last week. He spread the ball around with five different receivers, catching five passes or more during the game. One of the announcers said that this was the first time in Vikings’ history that a quarterback had achieved this statistic. Just one more record to add to the most accomplished quarterback in NFL history. Favre also passed for a season high of 392 yards. Oh how I wish I could go back in time to my fantasy football draft this year and take Brett Favre in round eight. And even that was considered too high at the time. My preseason predictions for Favre were not all that bad when compared to the general consensus. My player predictions for last week were even better.

Now onto Projections vs. Reality:

The Game: My projection: Vikings 34, Bears 20
Outcome: Vikings 36, Bears 10

Adrian Peterson: My projection: 140 combined yards, 1 TD
Outcome: 103 combined yards and 1 TD

Brett Favre: My projection: 230 yards and 3 TDs
Outcome: 392 yards passing and 3 TDs

Sidney Rice: Projection : 90 Yards and 1 TD
Outcome: 89 yards

Percy Harvin: My projection: 60 combined yards combined yards and 1TD
Outcome: 146 combined yards and 1 TD

Bernard Berrian: My projection: 30 yards
Outcome: 74 yards

Visanthe Shiancoe: My projection: 40 yards and 1 TD
Outcome: 51 yards and 1 TD

Chester Taylor: My projection: 40 combined yards
Outcome: 84 combined yards and 1 TD

Vikings Defense: My projection: Top 5 fantasy defense
Outcome: Number 10 Fantasy Defense for week 12

THIS WEEK
This week the Vikings finally have a challenging matchup after three easy ones. They are traveling to Arizona to face the Cardinals. The big question this week is who will start at quarterback for Arizona. Kurt Warner missed last week’s game against the Tennessee Titans. He was still suffering some lingering effects from a concussion he had received the week before. Matt Leinart filled in admirably, but the Cardinals are not as dangerous with Warner out of the lineup. I think the Vikings will win this game either way, but if Warner plays the Cardinals have a shot. My prediction is based on Warner being in the lineup. I predict the Vikings to win 34-27.

RUMORS
No rumors to report this week, so I’ll offer my waiver wire pickup of the week to fill this space. The landscape is barren for running backs at this point in the season. All of the good ones should be on rosters, so where do you go if you’re desperate? Jerrious Norwood of the Falcons. He is available in most leagues after missing five games with injury. Even before his injury he didn’t do much because Michael Turner was getting the bulk of the carries. Two weeks ago, owners rushed to pick up Jason Snelling because Michael Turner got injured and Jerrious Norwood was still inactive. Last week, both Turner and Norwood returned. Unfortunately, Turner got injured again. Turner had 12 carries before his injury. Norwood had six carries for 22 yards – three more carries than Jason Snelling. Norwood also caught two passes for 22 yards and a touchdown. Norwood is the fastest of the three running backs, and if Turner is out, then Norwood should be the featured back ahead of Snelling. However, when Turner comes back healthy, expect Norwood to drift back to fantasy football irrelevancy.

INJURIES
Adrian Peterson was questionable before last week’s game with an ankle injury and illness. Subsequently, he did not have a great outing with only 85 yards rushing and two fumbles. However, he still managed to get a late touchdown. Bernard Berrian was also listed as questionable with a hamstring injury that has been bothering him all season. Berrian played well catching six passes for 74 yards. As I’m writing this on Tuesday, the injury reports are not yet out so I don’t have any informed updates. I expect both of these guys will probably play this week, but to be sure, follow me on Twitter for injury updates @theNFLguy

POSITION ANALYSIS

QUARTERBACK
At the top of my article I stated that Favre is the number two fantasy quarterback starting at week three of the NFL season, trailing only Aaron Rogers. That does not mean that you should automatically start Favre over Brady, Manning or Brees as they’re are all only separated by a few points. What it does mean, is that you should look at the matchups when making your lineup decisions. Favre is the number five fantasy quarterback for the entire season, and he can start over most other quarterbacks in any given week. Feel free to send me your start/sit questions via Twitter or email.

This week the Vikings face a challenging defense in the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals rank 4th in sacks and 11th in interceptions in the league. However, they rank 29th in pass defense by total yards. Expect a shootout, especially if Warner plays.

My Projection: 300 yards, 3 TDs

RUNNING BACKS
Adrian Peterson has some injuries and an illness, and I’m not talking about his recent case of fumble-litis. He’ll face a stiffer test than previous weeks going against the Cardinal 14th ranked rush defense. They are giving up only 108 yards per game. They’ve also only given up eight touchdowns on the ground this year, which comes out to less than one per game. I expect Chester Taylor to get a little more involved after his great performance last week.

My Projection: Peterson 90 combined yards, 1 TD; Taylor 55 combined yards

WIDE RECEIVERS
Percy Harvin was the best receiver last week. He has all but wrapped up the rookie of the year award. He had six catches for 101 yards and a touchdown against the Bears. He also added 45 yards on two carries. I think the Vikings should line him up more often at running back. That formation paid off last week against the Bears, and it was a big factor in the Florida Gators winning the national championship last year. Sidney Rice is still Brett Favre’s favorite target, but Percy is a close second. Coming in third was the consensus preseason number one receiver, Bernard Berrian. It’s surprising how far Berrian is behind Harvin and Rice in production. Part of the problem is a hamstring injury that has been affecting him all year. The other problem is that there are not enough balls to go around. When you also factor in Visanthe Shiancoe, Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson, someone has to lose out. That someone is Bernard Berrian.

My Projection: Rice 110 yards, 1 TD; Harvin 80 combined yards and 1 TD; Berrian 50 yards

TIGHT ENDS
Shiancoe is now racking up yards to go along with his touchdowns. He has back to back games with over 50 yards receiving (78 and 51), and he has touchdowns in both of those games. He also has the most touchdowns of any tight end in the league with eight in eleven games. Very impressive!

My Projection: 45 yards and 1TD


KICKER
If you have Ryan Longwell, you should start him every week. The Vikings score a lot, and he’s very good. He’s also a kicker, so there’s not much else to say here.

DEFENSE
The Vikings are the third ranked fantasy defense in my league. However, if Warner starts it could be a shootout and you may want to look elsewhere for a defense. On the other hand, if Leinart starts, then this could be a great matchup. Either way, I predict the Vikings to finish as a top 10 fantasy defense against the Cardinals.

* Favre is the number two fantasy quarterback in my league if the season started at week 3. The scoring for quarterbacks in my league is as follows: 4 points for passing touchdowns, 1 point for 25 yards passing (0.04 points for 1 yard passing), 2 points for interception, 0.1 points for 1 yard rushing, 2 bonus points for touchdown passes over 40 yards.