LAST WEEK
Last week’s game had all the makings of a classic showdown. On one side, there was 40 year old, three-time NFL MVP, and two-time super bowl participant Brett Favre. On the other side, there was 38 year old, two-time NFL MVP, and three-time super bowl participant Kurt Warner. When two, future hall of fame quarterbacks known for their gunslinger mentality face off, you expect a real shootout. Kurt Warner came out, guns blazing, firing away with uncanny accuracy hitting 22 of 32 passes for 285 yards and three touchdowns. The other gunslinger, Brett Favre shot himself in the foot. He threw two interceptions in the game after only throwing three during the first 11 games of the season. But it wasn’t all Favre’s fault. There was plenty of blame to go around. Head coach Brad Childress explained "It was pretty clear to me from where I stood that we got outplayed, we got out-tempoed.” I agree with the outplayed sentiment, but I don’t think being out-tempoed was the key to this loss. This game was lost in the trenches. The Arizona Cardinals were the more physical team, and they beat down the Vikings on both sides of the ball. On offense, they did not allow a sack against a Vikings front four that is considered one of the best in the game. The Cardinal’s offensive line gave Kurt Warner time to pick apart the Vikings defense with surgeon-like accuracy. On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals front seven completely overwhelmed the Vikings offensive line. Favre was sacked three times and was under constant pressure. Additionally, former number one running back in the entire NFL (Chris Johnson now holds this title), Adrian Peterson was held to an amazingly low 19 yards on 13 carries. The Cardinals knocked down the Vikings time after time, and the Vikings could not pick themselves up and mount an effective response. Do not get fooled by the “it’s only one game” mentality. This game was important. The Vikings were only one game behind the Saints, and were playing for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Now they must hold off a resurgent Cardinals team to remain the number two seed for the playoffs. Also, this game had a much different feel than the Vikings’ loss at Pittsburgh. If not for some fluke plays, the Vikings could have beaten the Steelers. There were no flukes against Arizona. The Cardinals were the better team by a wide margin.
Now onto Projections vs. Reality:
The Game: My projection: Vikings 34, Cardinals 27
Outcome: Vikings 17, Cardinals 30
Adrian Peterson: My projection: 90 combined yards, 1 TD
Outcome: 65 combined yards
Brett Favre: My projection: 300 yards and 3 TDs
Outcome: 275 yards passing and 2 TDs, 2 INTs
Sidney Rice: Projection : 110 Yards and 1 TD
Outcome: 72 yards
Percy Harvin: My projection: 80 combined yards and 1TD
Outcome: 101 combined yards and 1 TD
Bernard Berrian: My projection: 50 yards
Outcome: 36 yards
Visanthe Shiancoe: My projection: 45 yards and 1 TD
Outcome: 14 yards and 1 TD
Chester Taylor: My projection: 55 combined yards
Outcome: 49 combined yards
Vikings Defense: My projection: Top 10 fantasy defense
Outcome: Number 30 Fantasy Defense for week 13
THIS WEEK
This week the Vikings face another stiff test. The Cincinnati Bengals have a better front seven than the Arizona Cardinals. The Bengals have the fourth best overall defense in the NFL. The Bengals are designed to both run the ball and stop the run. If the Vikings play like they did last week against Arizona then they’re in trouble. I know the Bengals are going to be ready for the war in the trenches. I hope that the Vikings can match the intensity and physicality of the Bengals on both sides of the ball. I give the Vikings the advantage because this game is at home, but it should be a very close one. I predict Vikings win 24-20.
RUMORS
No rumors to report this week, so I’ll offer some waiver wire advice. Jerome Harrison was a hot name on the waiver wire late last week, and after his performance against San Diego his stock is even higher. He only had 10 carries for 35 yards, but more impressively he caught seven balls for 62 yards and two touchdowns. He has a bad matchup against the Steelers this week, but weeks 15 and 16 he faces two of the worst rush defenses in the league – Oakland and Kansas City. You’ll also want to pick up his backup, Chris Jennings, as a handcuff.
INJURIES
I’m writing this on Tuesday so there are no formal updates on injuries. Visanthe Shiancoe was questionable before the Arizona game. He started and scored a touchdown. Adrian Peterson was listed as probable. He played, but did not look good. However, besides Shiancoe and Percy Harvin, no one really looked good against the Cardinals. Favre appeared to hurt his throwing hand during the game. I don’t know if it was serious enough to get listed on the injury report. We’ll just have to wait and see later in the week. For injury updates during the week and before the game, follow me on Twitter @theNFLguy
POSITION ANALYSIS
QUARTERBACK
Favre is still in the running for the MVP of the NFL. He had a little hiccup against the Cardinals, but his numbers were still decent from a fantasy perspective – 274 yards passing, two touchdowns and two interceptions. He faces a stiff test against a very strong Bengals defense. I think the Bengals will be able to stop the Vikings running game. So Favre will have to air it out to win. The Bengals have a stiff pass defense ranked 13th in the league. They’ve only allowed 13 passing touchdowns over twelve games while prodicing 14 interceptions and 29 sacks. There may be better options than Favre this week, but I think he still has a very good week.
My Projection: 240 yards, 3 TDs
RUNNING BACKS
Percy Harvin was the best running back for the Vikings last week and he’s considered a wide receiver. However, he did play a lot of running back at the University of Florida. Harvin rushed for 22 yards on 2 carries last week. In comparison, Adrian Peterson only rushed for 19 yards on 13 carries and Chester Taylor rushed for 21 yards on five carries. I still firmly believe that Harvin should get more snaps at running back and at quarterback in the wildcat formation. I think he should get him an additional five to ten touches per game this way.
Adrian Peterson was clocked by police driving 109 miles per hour last week. He did not look that fast on Sunday night, when he rushed for only 19 yards against the Cardinals. He’s struggled the past three weeks with injuries and fumbles. This week is not his best opportunity to get back on track, when the Vikings face the number two rush defense in the NFL. While I am not recommending to bench Peterson, my projections for him are not very good this week.
My Projection: Peterson 70 combined yards; Taylor 30 combined yards
WIDE RECEIVERS
Every time I make a declaration about the Vikings receivers they prove me wrong the following week. In my league, Percy Harvin is the top fantasy wide receiver on the Vikings. We don’t count points per reception. On the season he has caught 48 passes for 681 yards and six touchdowns. He has 13 rushes for 113 yards, and he has returned two kickoffs for touchdowns. Sidney Rice has caught 63 balls for 1,036 yards and four touchdowns. Percy Harvin ranks as the eleventh best fantasy receiver with 130.2 points and Sidney Rice comes in a close second ranking 15th with 127.6 points. Of course if you count receptions, then Rice comes out on top. These guys can be considered low end number one, or high end number two receivers any given week. The only thing hurting their production is tight end Visanthe Shiancoe. I’ll get to him in the next section. This is a tough week, but I think Favre will have to win this game through the air.
My Projection: Rice 80 yards, 1 TD; Harvin 80 combined yards and 1 TD; Berrian 30 yards
TIGHT ENDS
Visanthe Shiancoe only caught two balls for 14 yards against the Cardinals, but he made it count hauling in another touchdown. He now has nine on the season. If you need to start a tight end, it’s tough to leave him on the bench.
My Projection: 30 yards and 1TD
KICKER
If you have Ryan Longwell, you should start him every week. The Vikings score a lot, and he’s very good. He’s also just a kicker, so there’s not much else to say here.
DEFENSE
The Vikings defense looked horrible last week. This week’s matchup is tough, but should not be as bad as last week. Especially, since the Vikings are playing at home.
I don’t think this is the best matchup, but the Vikings should still finish as a top twelve defense against the Bengals.
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