LAST WEEK
The Vikings were beat up and beat down by the Carolina Panthers on Sunday night in a game that was reminiscent of their loss to the Arizona Cardinals two weeks ago. The Vikings have holes in both their offensive line and their secondary. Adrian Peterson only rushed for 35 yards against one of the worst rushing defenses in the league. Brett Favre was sacked four times and pressured throughout the game. The offensive line was supposed to be one of the strong suits for the Vikings, but after two bad losses to the Panthers and Cardinals, it now looks like a glaring weakness. On top everything, there appears to be a developing schism between the head coach and the quarterback. I will address this latest controversy in my Rumors section. For a recap of the numbers, check out Projections versus Reality.
Projections vs. Reality:
The Game: My projection: Vikings 27, Panthers 10
Outcome: Vikings 7, Panthers 26
Adrian Peterson: My projection: 165 combined yards and 1 TD
Outcome: 108 combined yards and 1 TD
Brett Favre: My projection: 220 yards, 2TDs and 1 INT
Outcome: 224 yards passing and 1 INT
Sidney Rice: Projection : 100 Yards and 1 TD
Outcome: 69 yards
Percy Harvin: My projection: Will not play
Outcome: 10 yards
Bernard Berrian: My projection: 40 yards
Outcome: 25 yards
Visanthe Shiancoe: My projection: 55 yards and 1 TD
Outcome: 24 yards
Chester Taylor: My projection: 45 combined yards
Outcome: 13 combined yards
Vikings Defense: My projection: Top 5 fantasy defense
Outcome: Number 14 fantasy defense
THIS WEEK
The Vikings travel to Chicago for Monday Night Football. On paper the 5-9 Bears should be just the right medicine to cure the Vikings’ ills. Not many teams have looked worse as of late, with the Bears dropping eight of their last ten games. However, this is a rivalry game, on the road, and in the freezing cold. I saw a statistic on ESPN that Brett Favre lost his last seven games on the road whenever the temperature was below 37 degrees. Not only did he lose, but his stats were dreadful in those games. Next Monday Night the temperature is expected to be below 30 degrees at Soldier Field. One positive aspect for fantasy owners is that this game matters to the Vikings. They only have a half game lead over the Eagles for the number two seed in the playoffs, so they should be playing hard and I don’t expect any starters to rest. That being said, the weather conditions are not ideal. I predict a low scoring affair. I predict the Vikings to win a close one 21-17 over the Bears.
RUMORS
It’s not the first time this year that the Vikings are at the center of a soap opera. Brett Favre and Brad Childress are supposedly in a power struggle over who has control of the offense. Apparently, Favre has been audibling out of running plays for Adrian Peterson more than Childress would like. Things bubbled over last week against Carolina when Childress tried to bench Favre when the Vikings were leading 7-6 in the 3rd quarter.
I don’t have insight into how often Favre has changed plays at the line of scrimmage. I do know that Brad Childress was wrong to suggest benching Favre against Carolina. The Vikings needed to win in order to maintain a one and a half game lead over Philadelphia for the number two seed in the playoffs. In Childress’ mind, he wanted to protect Favre from injury so that Favre would be healthy for the playoffs. However, what kind of message does that send to the team?
Brett Favre was right to tell his head coach that he was staying in the game. The Vikings playoff seeding was at stake. Childress goes on to defend his idea as “stream of consciousness” that occurs during the course of a game. I describe it as opening his mouth without thinking. However, when it comes to talking without considering the consequences, Brett Favre is a trail blazer. Favre should know better than to reveal this discussion to the media. However, this is the essence of Favre being Favre. Personally, I think this is overblown. I agree with Childress when he says that these types of conversations happen all the time between players and coaches. People have disagreements and arguments and move on. It just so happens that this “heated discussion” took place on national television during Sunday Night Football. The fact that the Vikings lost only amplifies the situation. This kind of story has staying power. It doesn’t disappear after 24 hours; it only grows. Moreover, if the Vikings lose this week in Chicago, the talking heads will attribute this schism as the reason for the loss. If Favre and Childress truly want to put this controversy behind them, they need only to heed the advice of one Al Davis who famously said “Just win baby”.
INJURIES
Percy Harvin is the only significant fantasy player on the injury report this week. He is listed as probable with a neck injury, not migraine headaches. He practiced at full speed on Wednesday.
POSITION ANALYSIS
QUARTERBACK
I do not think this is a good week to start Brett Favre. The weather conditions will not be favorable for the passing game. Additionally, with the controversy this week regarding Favre audibling out of running plays, I think that the Vikings will focus primarily on the run this week.
My Projection: 180 yards, 1 TD
RUNNING BACKS
Adrian Peterson struggled again last week. He rushed for only 35 yards on 12 carries. He did however catch three balls for 73 yards. With all the controversy about Favre changing running plays to passing plays at the line of scrimmage, I fully expect the Vikings to make the running game work on Monday night against the Bears. Furthermore, with weather conditions likely to hinder the passing game I expect All Day to run all night.
My Projection: Peterson 125 combined yards, 1 TD; Taylor 25 combined yards
WIDE RECEIVERS
Sidney Rice is a must start in most fantasy formats. Percy Harvin is a little bit of question mark. He missed the game two weeks ago because of migraine headaches. He returned last week after missing two weeks of practice, and had only one catch for ten yards. He is practicing at full speed this week, so I expect him to be more involved against the Bears.
My Projection: Rice 50 yards, 1 TD; Harvin 40 combined yards, 1TD; Berrian 30 yards
TIGHT ENDS
Visanthe Shiancoe has disappointed the last two weeks. He only had three catches for 24 yards against the Panthers. He always has a good chance to score a touchdown but it’s tough to predict.
My Projection: 25 yards
KICKER
Ryan Longwell usually is a must start. However, I do not expect a lot of offense this week. Additionally, the expected bad weather conditions will hurt the kicking game.
My advice: Sit him.
DEFENSE
The Vikings defense has been a disappointment for a few weeks now. However, the Bears are abysmal on offense and Jay Cutler turns the ball over like Jay Schroeder.
My Projection: Vikings will be a top 10 fantasy defense.
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